Good stuff Graeme.

Could you add China, next time? .
Experience is the only genuine knowledge, but as time passes, I have forgotten more than I can remember
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The problem with the infections stats is they only cover those that have been detected and which, to some extent, depends on testing levels as well of those that have manifested. There may well be the hidden iceberg. John
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I think has been said already but the infection rate is test-dependent so not worth it's salt in my view. Sadly your death rate chart is the one that's gonna e accurate. But there is a per-capita factor on that too.


. Cheers, Greg
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No doubt the data is flawed, especially in respect of the number of infections due to different levels of testing
I sincerely hope the actual number of infections is 10 time what is reported

All that said, this is the best data set I have been able to find and unfortunately I think it does indicate that Spain and the USA will be hit pretty hard in the coming weeks 2007 Zermatt Silver TDV8 Vogue SE - now sold but was a great car!

Joe90 wrote:

Good stuff Graeme.

Could you add China, next time?

I'd sort of ignored China as their curve shows a massive leveling off of both infections and deaths
Personally, I don't believe their numbers, they seem too good to be true

I'll see what I can knock up  2007 Zermatt Silver TDV8 Vogue SE - now sold but was a great car!

Good stuff Graeme

I think the cumulative chart regarding infections per country can be misleading, that really does depend on how many people have been tested, which I should imagine varies quite a lot around the world.

There was an article in the Spectator from a doctor who thinks that when the Pandemic comes to an end, ultimately the average death rate per country will be very similar to each other.

His analysis being that at present, in most countries if a patient dies having been tested positive for Covid19 that is how the cause of death is recorded, when in reality the underlying illness that was already present in a lot of patients would be a better reflection of cause of death.

His conclusion being that if you could analyse every death, and separate them into 2 categories, 1 category of death caused by Covid19 alone and a 2nd category of death caused by Covid19 with underlying health issues, most countries will have a similar percentage of deaths to infections ratio as each other.

Which in his opinion will be nearer Germany’s current rate of 0.8%.

Charts including China

Suspect the death rate is inflated with anyone who has tested positive and died being recorded as a COVID-19 death, but I've got to have some degree of trust that the professionals are deciding the best way to record things and that countries are using a broadly similar method of categorisation (otherwise we might as well not look at any numbers!)

As a late comer to the party ...it seems the big gap is in the testing and the corresponding figures that roll off following
Given that few people are being tested how can we draw meaningful correlations

A relative in the U.K. Was diagnosed as positive via the NHS 111 based on his symptoms
He asked if he would be recorded in any figures ........no ....because he hasn't been tested!

IMy hunch is that given the wuhan population of 13mio along with the infectious nature this virus must have hit the majority of the population including the 5mio that fled the city before the lock down. 5k of the pose 5mio hit Singapore -one of the benefits of a managed environment they track them all.

In short it seems we are all likely to contract this thing soon or later and simply these measures are to protect the health services rather than saving lives right now.

I have seen no clinical or scientific research to confirm that once had and gone how long before one is no longer contagious ....let alone a second inflection ?

Just read unsurprisingly this am that many wuhan crematorium hace been operating 24/7 for a number of weeks
....simply to incinerate the 5k deaths?
Why do we believe the figures considering we take all the other data with a pinch of salt? ----------------------------------------
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A couple more charts, I have been interested in the demographics:







I had a look at how urbanised countries are, but there doesn't appear to be any correlation to deaths or cases. For example Belgium has 98% of its population in urban settings, whilst Italy has only 69%. .
Experience is the only genuine knowledge, but as time passes, I have forgotten more than I can remember
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A note for Senor Malaga
I attended a preceptorship at UCL in November 2019
The subject was fungi and its ramapant develonwnt as a killer across all ages however the weakest demograhic is unsurprisingly the same as covid-19
A study across the Eu determined Spain had the highest infections and consequent death rate.
A deep dive revealed not a genetic reason or anything more sinister but the Spainish HCPs (nurses mostly) used the same gloves and masks all the way through their shifts only discarding at the end of day.

I leave you to concluded whether this was from choice or by systemic design( budget) ----------------------------------------
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 .
Experience is the only genuine knowledge, but as time passes, I have forgotten more than I can remember
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I'm amongst that group who want to know....died with covid or from covid It makes a world of difference to the figures.

Sorry, this is the video.

@ DaveK

We probably won't get that detailed data for a year or two.

All we know is that folks that have died had the virus, many of whom had underlying health problems - which doesn't necessarily mean they would have died anyway, but that they had less resistance to the virus (weak immune system etc.)

There has also been some discussion about "viral load" where some people get a big whack of the virus whilst others only get a mild dose, this could be having an impact on those who "shouldn't" die.... However there are those people who you might have thought would succumb, but have pulled through. This is the most worrying aspect of the virus, it seems to be variable and indiscriminate. .
Experience is the only genuine knowledge, but as time passes, I have forgotten more than I can remember
Volvo V70 P2 2006 2.4 Petrol 170bhp Estate SE
MG Midget Mk1 1962

Previous: L322 Range Rover TDV8 3.6 2008; L322 Range Rover TD6 3.0 2002; P38A Range Rover V8 1999