I would imagine quite a few people will be shot at dawn in JLR soon …… if only to save on costs They must be hemorrhaging cash right now with not being able to get product out of the door ( as must the dealers).

I'm not sure what to make of all this......... Some people are talking of 2024 deliveries and even late 2024 delivery dates, but what's really going to happen between now and then?

As things stand today, there are 140 2022 Range Rovers available to buy on Autotrader, and we're only what, 6-8 months in to deliveries being received - Where exactly are we going to be at the start of 2024, let alone late 2024!!

What will there be available to buy on Autotrader in terms of new / nearly new cars in 2024..... 400 / 500 cars?

The numbers available today would certainly suggest that this is easily possible, if not highly likely - So, then what happens to the premiums? - If there are 200 black L460's available, speculators can forget any kind of profit, in fact they'll be looking at a possible loss if they don't shift these cars quick enough.

And what about all the people who currently have orders placed, but then later realise that they actually can't afford these cars because of the cost of borrowing and the worsening economic crisis?

I personally think that there's an awful lot that could change in the next 12-24 months, and very likely will.

I think some of these risks are discussed in the FY2021/22 Annual Report - June 2022 (https://media.jlrms.com/2022-08-17/pdf/fc7...ZxWEx6R2Bj):

Click image to enlarge

This could trigger new purchasing models where manufacturers build pre specd bulk batches of cars that are unsold but easier to manage the supply chain for a bit like the principle of first editions. Customers then purchase off the shelf with immediate delivery. A second bespoke model could run alongside for custom orders with expectations set but with the exclusivity to help ease the wait.

Dealers could offer more to customise with such things as black packs (it’s mainly just trims) and wheel swaps etc. MY23 PHEV HSE
MY19 Disco 5 HSE - gone
My16 Disco 4 HSE LUXURY - gone
My12 Disco 4 HSE - gone
MY05 Disco 3 S - gone but not forgotten

Or you go down the route that BMW are suggesting is coming whereby they build all the cars fully specced and then charge a monthly subscription to enable the features the current owner desires.

Martin2 wrote:

LR are quoting 68 weeks on the configurator for a D350 AB, but you still can't order a P530.

So, just into 2024 if you believe them.

I think you did really well to get your car Bill, not to mention it was straight from the dealer and without the crazy premiums being asked for on Autotrader.

On the subject of crazy premiums, who are these people who pay £20-£30k over list? - I honestly don't understand how anyone can really care that much.

I certainly don't consider myself poor, but there's no way I'd pay that much over list price just to get a car now.

Going back to Bill's original point, yes, I'm sure there will be many cancellations - I have two FFRR on order, but I will only be taking delivery of one, and I'm sure I'm not the only person applying this strategy.

Furthermore, I got an email from EDF Energy today, saying that my combined Gas and Electric is rising to £13,500 per annum from the 1st of October. While I'm not particularly concerned about this, for some it will make them question whether or not they really need the latest Range Rover, which again will lead to even more cancellations in the coming months.

Moreover, as the number of 2022MY FFRR for sale on Autotrader continues to rise from todays figure of 141 cars, to 250 / 300 cars, they're going to need an awful lot of idiots out there to buy them with such significant premiums.

I suspect within 9-12 months, those premiums at best will be down at £3-£5k over list - Eventually, these speculators will just be glad to see the back of them.

If JLR keep increasing the price at the rate they are, those who have paid a £20K premium to get one now may be in the money soon

I agree though, aja500, these premiums will disappear over the next 12 months. The interest rates alone on PCP deals are going to start to price a lot of customers out, as well as the JLR price increases and general cost of living. Coupled with supply chain improvements this could even tip the balance into an over supply in 12 to 18 months time and discounts will be back on the table. Things can about turn very quickly. Who would have thought earlier this year we would have been talking about at interest rates at 3 to 4%?

All good points, but I'm not so sure about the cancellations aspect, at least from the perspective of affordability. I get the impression that the people who can afford a Range Rover are not likely to be too massively impacted by the cost of living crisis. They still need to drive something, and there are not *that* many alternatives to a Range Rover.

I spoke to my dealer today. He said that he'd recently been to the factory and there were many cars waiting for parts. Nothing new here, but he mentioned the Meridian sound system as being in particularly short supply. 2024 Range Rover P550e AB

I guess time will tell Ed, but I wouldn't put Range Rover owners in the same league as that of perhaps Rolls-Royce, where money is often no object.

I suspect most FFRR are bought on PCP's, the customer puts a few grand down and makes their monthly payment with a balloon at the end. But as the PCP APR / interest rate goes up, so will the monthly payment.

I've also just seen on the lunchtime news, that the Bank of England has increased interest rates by a further 0.5%, which again will effect those who have a mortgage which is not currently on a fixed rate, or who's fixed term is approaching its end.

We have a relatively small mortgage which we fixed 18 months ago for 5 years. The rate was 1.4%, I've just heard on the BBC news that customers will currently be lucky to get 3.6%!! - Another couple of interest rate rises in the next few months, and no doubt we'll be looking around 4.2% fixed, which is triple the rate myself and many others have previously received.

My point is, if somebody's mortgage interest rate comes to an end in the next 6 months and then triples, I think many will be rethinking their PCP's and maybe sticking with their existing car.

I’m watching this with great interest. My intention was to run this car for 12 months and likely switch it for a Taycan Turismo.

The reality is, I can not make it financially attractive enough to switch vehicles, largely because the price I paid when I took delivery in April 2022, which my dealer very reasonably honoured, was the October 2021 list price. It just continues to feel like very good value. Whilst the Taycan market balloons.

With respect, there’s a lot of fanciful thinking with regard the demand falling or availability increasing in the coming months. I just don’t see it happening.

Looks like they are struggling for chips. Meridian has been downgraded on HSE and AB on the configurator with the price remaining the same.

Will be interesting to know if it is for just new orders or all builds currently in the system.

Time to call the dealer to get an update………again.

What a joke. Two large price rises and now decontenting.

So you order a product and you don't know when it will come, what price it will be or what the spec will end up being.

Nice job JLR.

I can hear the next call already………..well sir, we’ve had to put the prices up again as we buy our parts from abroad in dollars 💵

This is what’s been happening to defender and discovery orders for the past year constant spec and price changes usually both for the worse. Deleting items such as large screens and swapping digital dashes for analogue gauges whilst keeping or increasing the price. MY23 PHEV HSE
MY19 Disco 5 HSE - gone
My16 Disco 4 HSE LUXURY - gone
My12 Disco 4 HSE - gone
MY05 Disco 3 S - gone but not forgotten